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What this means. A wallet put $47.1k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 22% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$47.1k
SELL Yes @ 78¢ · 60,143 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Sports
What happened
Wallet Mentallyillgambld took Yes (sell) for $47.1k at an average 78¢. At that price the market implied a 22% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $47.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 78¢
- Implied odds
- 21.7%
- As American odds
- +361 no vig
- Size
- $47.1k
- Placed
- Jun 11, 17:39 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 14, 02:38 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Mentallyillgambld
- Tx
- 0xa1ef8dc7…
This wallet's graded record
2/7-5.9 pts
expected 2.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -22 ptsYes price · entry 78¢ · resolved Yes · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $225.1k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.3k | excluded |