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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -23.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.7 pts
Called / graded
2/7
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$542.9k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$81k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Kraken vs. Ducks at 55¢) and the edge is -35.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 30% · n=1
40–60¢
20% vs 52% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 74% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.26M
Last 30 days +$0 · $45.38M volume · 57,735 trades · since Jan 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.47M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$7.73M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
270d
2286 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 2 | 3.7 | -23.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $28.2k | missed |
 Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ | $35.2k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW SELL Arizona Wildcats @ 70¢ | $15.9k | missed |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 43¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 44¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
 Wild vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Panthers @ 41¢ | $34.9k | missed |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 42¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW SELL Hawks @ 59¢ | $11.1k | missed |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 56¢ | $13.0k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Lightning vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Over @ 48¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ | $28.4k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $36.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $69.2k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Warriors @ 52¢ | $22.6k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $42.1k | excluded |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 64¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| Kraken vs. Ducks | MED BUY Ducks @ 55¢ | $27.3k | called |
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