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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +23.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+23.6 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$82.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$8,106
Last 30 days +$0 · $365.1k volume · 554 trades · since Feb 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
−$7,751
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$355
Closed-position win rate
92%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
241d
401 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +21.2 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +26.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $38.3k | excluded |
 Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 74¢ | $28.1k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $16.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4f84d2…