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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.6 wins, so it did -5.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.1 pts
Called / graded
5/11
Expected from price
5.6
Flagged volume
$913.8k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$265k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (France vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 41¢) and the edge is -11.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=2
40–60¢
50% vs 52% · n=8
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$836.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $25.23M volume · 38,326 trades · since Mar 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5.36M
Open P&L · 139 positions
−$6.18M
Closed-position win rate
96%
145 closed
Wallet age · markets
235d
281 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11 | 5 | 5.6 | -5.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $183.7k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 58¢ | $207.5k 3.5× usual |
called |
 Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $46.8k | missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $51.4k | called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $21.2k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $80.7k | missed |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | MED BUY No @ 57¢ | $67.0k | missed |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $43.6k | missed |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $74.3k | excluded |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $109.0k | called |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $10.9k | called |
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