What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -32.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-32.5 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$2.87M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$434.7k
Last 30 days −$1 · $11.85M volume · 3,604 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
