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What this means. A wallet put $77.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 74% chance. It won. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$77.9k
BUY No @ 74¢ · 105,300 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet steeplejack took No (buy) for $77.9k at an average 74¢. At that price the market implied a 74% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $77.9k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 74¢ means
74%chance the market gave
−285American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Implied odds
- 74.0%
- Size
- $77.9k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 15:50 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- steeplejack
- Tx
- 0x2bee3d92…
This wallet's graded record
1/4-32.5 pts
expected 2.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +26 ptsNo price · entry 74¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $65.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $21.0k | excluded |