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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -15.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.4 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$113.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$21.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.01M volume · 3,783 trades · since Feb 28, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$21.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
59%
82 closed
Wallet age · markets
239d
80 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | -15.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 79¢ | $28.1k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 90¢ | $17.7k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x436f96…