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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did +17.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+17.5 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$120.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$24.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $593.4k volume · 565 trades · since Apr 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$22.4k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$2,127
Closed-position win rate
57%
63 closed
Wallet age · markets
204d
60 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | +17.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $13.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $10.1k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93.4¢ | $29.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $24.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $13.8k | called |
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