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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 20. The prices it paid implied about 10.7 wins, so it did +11.4 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+11.4 pts over 20 bets). Without its single best bet: +7.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+11.4 pts
Called / graded
13/20
Expected from price
10.7
Flagged volume
$1.94M
Sample size20 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$90k20 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia? at 12¢) and the edge is +7.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 12% · n=1
20–40¢
50% vs 31% · n=2
40–60¢
64% vs 51% · n=11
60–80¢
60% vs 69% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.33M
Last 30 days −$156.8k · $72.36M volume · 106,824 trades · since Jan 22, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$12.21M
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$300.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
275d
1726 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 16 | 10 | 8.8 | +7.3 pts |
| Other | 4 | 3 | 1.9 | +27.8 pts |
History
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