← Wallets
+$3,118No · avg 78¢ → 81¢ · $80.5k+$2,811No · avg 91.3¢ → 97.7¢ · $43.4k+$1,696No · avg 69¢ → 72¢ · $34.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$6,052No · avg 71¢ → 88¢ · $32.2k+$11.8kYes · avg 44¢ → 70¢ · $32.0k−$157No · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $28.8k−$333Yes · avg 64¢ → 62¢ · $13.9k−$333No · avg 64¢ → 62¢ · $13.9k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 16. The prices it paid implied about 10.6 wins, so it did +8.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.7 pts
Called / graded
12/16
Expected from price
10.6
Flagged volume
$1.74M
Sample size16 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$15k16 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US forces enter Iran by March 31? at 47¢) and the edge is +5.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=3
20–40¢
0% vs 28% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 47% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 74% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.49M
Last 30 days −$8,400 · $53.25M volume · 28,706 trades · since Jul 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.28M
Open P&L · 56 positions
+$23.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
841d
1737 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | +10.5 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | +1.2 pts |
| Other | 12 | 9 | 7.8 | +9.6 pts |
History
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