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What this means. A wallet put $10.1k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 28% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.1k
BUY Yes @ 28¢ · 36,511 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet Dropper took Yes (buy) for $10.1k at an average 28¢. At that price the market implied a 28% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.1k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 28¢ means
28%chance the market gave
+260American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 28¢
- Implied odds
- 27.7%
- Size
- $10.1k
- Placed
- Apr 21, 13:40 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Dropper
- Tx
- 0xc6f2c1c5…
This wallet's graded record
12/16+8.7 pts
expected 10.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -28 ptsYes price · entry 28¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $65.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $21.0k | excluded |