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What this means. A wallet put $206.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$206.8k
BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ · 207,436 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)8.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet Dropper took Yes (buy) for $206.8k at an average 99.7¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $206.8k+2
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.7¢
- Implied odds
- 99.7%
- Size
- $206.8k
- Placed
- Apr 16, 20:25 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Dropper
- Tx
- 0xb3968c70…
This wallet's graded record
12/16+8.7 pts
expected 10.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $51.8k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $45.4k | excluded |