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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -29.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.5 pts
Called / graded
1/11
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$1.25M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$228k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx at 64¢) and the edge is -36.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 35% · n=9
40–60¢
0% vs 43% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.37M
Last 30 days +$0 · $5.51M volume · 3,520 trades · since Jan 26, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$1.33M
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
271d
44 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 8 | 0 | 2.8 | -35.2 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +36.3 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.8 | -39.2 pts |
History
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