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What this means. A wallet put $18.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 32% chance. It won. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.3k
BUY No @ 32¢ · 58,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet AssuredAdverts took No (buy) for $18.3k at an average 32¢. At that price the market implied a 32% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.3k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 32¢ means
32%chance the market gave
+216American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 32¢
- Implied odds
- 31.6%
- Size
- $18.3k
- Placed
- Feb 05, 13:17 EST
- Market close
- Feb 07, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- AssuredAdverts
- Tx
- 0x2c8a2a59…
This wallet's graded record
1/11-29.5 pts
expected 4.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +68 ptsNo price · entry 32¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $54.5k | excluded |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $30.7k | excluded |