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AcctToBeRetired

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.25M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$99.9k
Last 30 days +$19 · $11.24M volume · 20,193 trades · since Dec 13, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$280.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
680d
1006 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other110.9+6.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?LOW BUY Yes @ 92.3¢ $20.3k92% 234d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $14.2k1% 235d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ $14.1k99% 235d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $26.3k100% 238d agoexcluded
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $10.5k99% 238d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $35.9k99% 239d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $13.2k99% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $11.6k99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.8k0% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $50.0k0% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $11.9k98% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $60.2k
2.3× usual
97% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $60.2k
2.3× usual
0% 242d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $10.6k99% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $48.2k98% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $44.4k0% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $44.3k100% 243d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $27.8k99% 244d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $18.3k99% 245d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $65.1k
2.5× usual
98% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $15.4k100% 246d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $15.0k98% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $49.3k98% 247d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $59.9k
2.3× usual
100% 247d agoexcluded
Government shutdown on Saturday?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $60.1k
2.3× usual
0% 251d agoexcluded
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $21.6k0% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $34.9k99% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $35.0k0% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $34.1k100% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $35.4k98% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97.3¢ $35.5k3% 257d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $35.9k97% 257d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $11.4k0% 257d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $11.0k96% 258d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW SELL No @ 85¢ $22.6k15% 258d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW BUY No @ 76¢ $11.0k76% 258d agoexcluded
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $15.8k80% 258d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $43.6k1% 259d agoexcluded
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 91.3¢ $13.6k91% 259d agocalled
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW BUY No @ 94¢ $23.3k94% 262d agocalled
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.7¢ $36.0k99% 263d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $25.9k97% 265d agoexcluded
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?excluded
BUY Yes @ 92.3¢$20.3k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 234d ago
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.3¢$14.2k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 235d ago
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.2¢$14.1k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 235d ago
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$26.3k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 238d ago
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$10.5k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 238d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$35.9k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 239d ago
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$13.2k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 240d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$11.6k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$20.8k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$11.9k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 241d ago
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$60.2k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$60.2k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 242d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$10.6k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$48.2k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$44.4k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$44.3k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 243d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$27.8k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 244d ago
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$18.3k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 245d ago
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$65.1k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$15.4k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 246d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$15.0k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$49.3k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 247d ago
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$59.9k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 247d ago
Government shutdown on Saturday?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$60.1k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 251d ago
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$21.6k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$34.9k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$35.0k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$34.1k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 256d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$35.4k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 97.3¢$35.5k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 257d ago
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97.5¢$35.9k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 257d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$11.4k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 257d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?excluded
BUY No @ 96¢$11.0k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 258d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?excluded
SELL No @ 85¢$22.6k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 258d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?excluded
BUY No @ 76¢$11.0k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 258d ago
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?excluded
BUY Yes @ 80¢$15.8k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 258d ago
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$43.6k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 259d ago
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?called
BUY Yes @ 91.3¢$13.6k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 259d ago
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?called
BUY No @ 94¢$23.3k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 262d ago
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.7¢$36.0k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 263d ago
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 97¢$25.9k
LOW AcctToBeRetired · 265d ago

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