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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did -47.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-47.2 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$477.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$226.4k
Last 30 days −$393 · $4.80M volume · 320 trades · since Oct 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$227.5k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$195
Closed-position win rate
45%
130 closed
Wallet age · markets
745d
128 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 2.6 | -54.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -26.5 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x56c950…