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What this means. A wallet put $30.5k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 90% chance. It won. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$30.5k
BUY Yes @ 90¢ · 34,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet AssuredAdverts took Yes (buy) for $30.5k at an average 90¢. At that price the market implied a 90% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $30.5k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 90¢ means
90%chance the market gave
−872American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 90¢
- Implied odds
- 89.7%
- Size
- $30.5k
- Placed
- Feb 21, 14:02 EST
- Market close
- Feb 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- AssuredAdverts
- Tx
- 0xcaf12205…
This wallet's graded record
1/11-29.5 pts
expected 4.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +10 ptsYes price · entry 90¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $55.8k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93.2¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 94¢ | $58.9k 2.6× usual |
missed |