Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$943
Return on staked
-85.7%
Bets
1/11 won
Edge vs price
-29.5 pts ±14.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -36.0 pts (0/5). Newer half: -24.0 pts (1/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Feb 11, 03:45 ESTSep 09, 13:36 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx | 64¢ | called | 44d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 35¢ | missed | 202d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 35¢ | missed | 202d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 37¢ | missed | 211d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 36¢ | missed | 211d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 37¢ | missed | 212d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 36¢ | missed | 212d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 37¢ | missed | 212d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 36¢ | missed | 238d ago |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 43¢ | missed | 240d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 29¢ | missed | 255d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.