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pako

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -12.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$22.5kYes · avg 87¢ → 93.5¢ · $328.8k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?+$2,559No · avg 65¢ → 94¢ · $8,316Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?−$2,112Yes · avg 66¢ → 50¢ · $6,978Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?+$1,242Yes · avg 54¢ → 76¢ · $4,227Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?+$442Yes · avg 75¢ → 85¢ · $3,586Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?−$3,825Yes · avg 45¢ → 20¢ · $2,925Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?+$50No · avg 94¢ → 97¢ · $1,602Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?+$57No · avg 90¢ → 95.5¢ · $977

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing   Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-12.1 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$3.09M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.5 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$14k
5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$66k$0
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 35¢) and the edge is -31.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 35% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=2
80–100¢
0% vs 94% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$404.6k
Last 30 days +$54.9k · $20.20M volume · 12,213 trades · since Oct 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$471.7k
Open P&L · 115 positions
−$78.2k
Closed-position win rate
81%
380 closed
Wallet age · markets
725d
482 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Crypto110.7+33.0 pts
Other312.6-52.9 pts
Economy110.3+65.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $75.4k
2.2× usual
93% 1d agopending
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $77.4k
2.2× usual
0% 1d agopending
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ $18.5k35% 75d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $260.7k
7.5× usual
99% 88d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ $81.4k
2.4× usual
22% 88d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ $33.0k29% 91d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?HIGH SELL Yes @ 72¢ $106.5k
3.1× usual
28% 91d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 75¢ $96.6k
2.8× usual
25% 91d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $23.9k93% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 91.3¢ $259.2k
7.5× usual
91% 101d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $244.1k
7.1× usual
1% 101d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 60¢ $30.5k40% 102d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 76¢ $37.2k24% 102d agomissed
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $13.9k99% 119d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $111.2k
3.2× usual
99% 120d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $50.0k0% 128d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $34.8k100% 130d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $36.9k1% 130d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $13.8k93% 133d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ $34.4k97% 164d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ $13.3k67% 165d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $25.5k95% 177d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $99.9k
2.9× usual
0% 177d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $42.5k92% 179d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $49.1k0% 179d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 97.8¢ $33.0k2% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $16.8k79% 199d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $50.0k97% 200d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 90¢ $14.1k10% 201d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $15.7k92% 205d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $15.5k88% 207d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ $25.9k70% 208d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $11.4k86% 209d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $16.0k96% 210d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $16.2k93% 222d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $139.9k
4.0× usual
0% 268d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.2¢ $78.4k
2.3× usual
97% 287d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.3¢ $37.0k96% 287d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ $25.2k90% 289d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ $83.5k
2.4× usual
89% 294d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ $22.8k87% 302d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $19.6k80% 306d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $84.3k
2.4× usual
98% 312d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $19.9k1% 324d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢ $97.9k
2.8× usual
2% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $76.1k
2.2× usual
2% 333d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $23.0k2% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $49.7k98% 335d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $49.1k2% 337d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $10.7k98% 338d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $29.3k2% 343d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 97.9¢ $11.6k2% 343d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $41.2k98% 346d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $16.9k98% 352d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $30.0k98% 354d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $59.9k98% 354d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?pending
BUY Yes @ 93¢$75.4k
LOW pako · 1d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?pending
SELL No @ 99.6¢$77.4k
LOW pako · 1d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 35¢$18.5k
LOW pako · 75d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$260.7k
LOW pako · 88d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 78¢$81.4k
MED pako · 88d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 71¢$33.0k
MED pako · 91d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 72¢$106.5k
HIGH pako · 91d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 75¢$96.6k
MED pako · 91d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$23.9k
LOW pako · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 91.3¢$259.2k
HIGH pako · 101d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$244.1k
LOW pako · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 60¢$30.5k
MED pako · 102d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 76¢$37.2k
MED pako · 102d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$13.9k
LOW pako · 119d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.8¢$111.2k
LOW pako · 120d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$50.0k
LOW pako · 128d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$34.8k
LOW pako · 130d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$36.9k
LOW pako · 130d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$13.8k
LOW pako · 133d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.5¢$34.4k
LOW pako · 164d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?called
SELL Yes @ 33¢$13.3k
LOW pako · 165d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95¢$25.5k
LOW pako · 177d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$99.9k
LOW pako · 177d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 92¢$42.5k
LOW pako · 179d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$49.1k
LOW pako · 179d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 97.8¢$33.0k
LOW pako · 199d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
BUY No @ 79¢$16.8k
LOW pako · 199d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?missed
BUY No @ 96.9¢$50.0k
LOW pako · 200d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 90¢$14.1k
LOW pako · 201d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?missed
BUY No @ 92¢$15.7k
LOW pako · 205d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 88¢$15.5k
LOW pako · 207d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?called
BUY Yes @ 70¢$25.9k
LOW pako · 208d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 86¢$11.4k
LOW pako · 209d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96¢$16.0k
LOW pako · 210d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 93¢$16.2k
LOW pako · 222d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$139.9k
MED pako · 268d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.2¢$78.4k
LOW pako · 287d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96.3¢$37.0k
LOW pako · 287d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 90¢$25.2k
LOW pako · 289d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 89¢$83.5k
MED pako · 294d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 87¢$22.8k
LOW pako · 302d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 80¢$19.6k
LOW pako · 306d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$84.3k
LOW pako · 312d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$19.9k
LOW pako · 324d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.3¢$97.9k
LOW pako · 333d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$76.1k
LOW pako · 333d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.1¢$23.0k
LOW pako · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$49.7k
LOW pako · 335d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.4¢$49.1k
LOW pako · 337d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$10.7k
LOW pako · 338d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 97.8¢$29.3k
LOW pako · 343d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 97.9¢$11.6k
LOW pako · 343d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.6¢$41.2k
LOW pako · 346d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.9¢$16.9k
LOW pako · 352d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$30.0k
LOW pako · 354d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$59.9k
LOW pako · 354d ago

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