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+$1,150No · avg 70¢ → 82¢ · $8,150−$79Yes · avg 29¢ → 6¢ · $21
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$142.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.8k
Last 30 days −$212 · $23.50M volume · 1,109 trades · since Jan 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$41.5k
Open P&L · 5 positions
+$63
Closed-position win rate
36%
58 closed
Wallet age · markets
285d
73 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -6.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 0.2¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | MED SELL Yes @ 93.2¢ | $38.7k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | MED SELL Yes @ 74¢ | $94.1k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
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