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US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $94.1k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 26% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded$94.1k
SELL Yes @ 74¢ · 126,924 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)2.4× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet 0x5925…b194 took Yes (sell) for $94.1k at an average 74¢. At that price the market implied a 26% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $94.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Implied odds
- 25.9%
- Size
- $94.1k
- Placed
- Apr 07, 18:53 EDT
- Market close
- Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x5925…b194
- Tx
- 0xf9fcd937…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-6.8 pts
expected 0.1 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $59.9k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $183.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |