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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +47.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+47.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$4.25M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.75M
Last 30 days +$0 · $22.89M volume · 1,936 trades · since Apr 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.75M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
70%
23 closed
Wallet age · markets
199d
22 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +47.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $196.8k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $518.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Jannik Sinner @ 54¢ | $770.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Jannik Sinner @ 52¢ | $177.7k | called | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $85.1k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $1.21M 5.6× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY No @ 34¢ | $43.3k | called | |
| HIGH BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $852.7k 4.0× usual |
missed | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $233.4k | missed | |
| MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $157.8k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x36a3f1…