← Wallets
−$67.2kYes · avg 70¢ → 12¢ · $13.2k · 0 proven with, 1 against−$13.7kYes · avg 44¢ → 14¢ · $6,075+$6No · avg 93.8¢ → 96.5¢ · $233+$7No · avg 92.5¢ → 95.5¢ · $219+$19No · avg 87¢ → 98.4¢ · $166−$1No · avg 95.9¢ → 95¢ · $151+$0No · avg 98.3¢ → 98.5¢ · $86
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +28.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+28.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$149.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.0k
Last 30 days −$6,698 · $3.15M volume · 4,495 trades · since Jul 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$42.2k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$82.1k
Closed-position win rate
57%
267 closed
Wallet age · markets
474d
257 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +28.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $35.3k | excluded |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $24.5k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
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