spx11

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -13.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?−$1,088Yes · avg 13¢ → 10¢ · $4,712 Will the Charlotte Hornets make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?+$39No · avg 66¢ → 68¢ · $1,486 Will the Golden State Warriors make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?+$346No · avg 48¢ → 66¢ · $1,259 Will Ousmane Dembélé (PSG) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?+$104No · avg 83¢ → 93¢ · $967 Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?−$16Yes · avg 94.2¢ → 92.6¢ · $926 Will Estéban Lepaul (Rennes) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?+$103Yes · avg 20¢ → 23¢ · $854 Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?−$616Yes · avg 4.8¢ → 2.5¢ · $651 Will the Phoenix Suns make the 2027 NBA Play-In Tournament?+$55Yes · avg 48¢ → 54¢ · $535

Price-adjusted edge

-13.6 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.3

Flagged volume

$95.2k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$110.1k

Last 30 days −$698 · $4.99M volume · 3,130 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$112.9k

Open P&L · 24 positions

−$2,230

Closed-position win rate

62%

178 closed

Wallet age · markets

383d

206 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.3	-13.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Magic vs. Celtics	LOW SELL Magic @ 84¢	$20.8k	16%	194d ago	called
Magic vs. Celtics	LOW BUY Magic @ 66¢	$16.3k	66%	195d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Clippers	LOW BUY Clippers @ 42¢	$32.6k	42%	204d ago	missed
Nuggets vs. Jazz	LOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢	$25.5k	85%	235d ago	called

Magic vs. Celticscalled

SELL Magic @ 84¢$20.8k

LOW spx11 · 194d ago

Magic vs. Celticsmissed

BUY Magic @ 66¢$16.3k

LOW spx11 · 195d ago

Spurs vs. Clippersmissed

BUY Clippers @ 42¢$32.6k

LOW spx11 · 204d ago

Nuggets vs. Jazzcalled

BUY Nuggets @ 85¢$25.5k

LOW spx11 · 235d ago

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