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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 5.3 wins, so it did -2.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-2.9 pts
Called / graded
5/9
Expected from price
5.3
Flagged volume
$2.17M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$64k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 58¢) and the edge is -8.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 14% · n=2
40–60¢
33% vs 47% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 78% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$71.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $25.82M volume · 4,427 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$210.1k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$14.3k
Closed-position win rate
67%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
499d
604 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -0.1 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | +7.7 pts |
| Other | 3 | 2 | 1.8 | +6.6 pts |
| Crypto | 2 | 0 | 0.6 | -30.4 pts |
History
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