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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.5 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$187.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,445
Last 30 days +$2,446 · $1.15M volume · 1,864 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$643
Open P&L · 11 positions
+$6,505
Closed-position win rate
72%
78 closed
Wallet age · markets
487d
86 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
 Trump out as President by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | MED SELL No @ 96.5¢ | $32.8k | missed |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $57.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $26.8k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $19.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x67ce19…