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Ume-Chang

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +16.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$31.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±36.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,782
Last 30 days −$640 · $1.01M volume · 35,395 trades · since Mar 13, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$49.6k
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$14.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
225d
8413 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other110.8+16.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $31.9k84% 210d agocalled

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