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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did +10.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +7.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.6 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$1.52M
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$198k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? at 78¢) and the edge is +7.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 78% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$231.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.72M volume · 1,268 trades · since Mar 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$228.2k
Open P&L · 2 positions
+$3,477
Closed-position win rate
74%
31 closed
Wallet age · markets
599d
30 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +13.3 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +6.4 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x29d683…