Dripx

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +4.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$45.0kNo · avg 50¢ → 56¢ · $430.0k Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$45.0kYes · avg 50¢ → 44¢ · $340.0k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?−$389No · avg 95¢ → 94.5¢ · $73.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against

Price-adjusted edge

+4.4 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.9

Flagged volume

$1.25M

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$61.6k

Last 30 days +$143 · $9.50M volume · 930 trades · since Sep 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.80M

Open P&L · 13 positions

−$1.74M

Closed-position win rate

82%

62 closed

Wallet age · markets

414d

52 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	1.9	+4.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$439.6k 4.4× usual	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$299.1k 3.0× usual	100%	177d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢	$85.7k	99%	199d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$112.1k	99%	211d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$41.4k	97%	218d ago	called
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢	$33.0k	94%	233d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$196.7k	100%	265d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$41.2k	99%	332d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$439.6k

LOW Dripx · 128d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$299.1k

LOW Dripx · 177d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.2¢$85.7k

LOW Dripx · 199d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$112.1k

LOW Dripx · 211d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called

BUY No @ 96.8¢$41.4k

LOW Dripx · 218d ago

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?called

BUY No @ 94.5¢$33.0k

LOW Dripx · 233d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.6¢$196.7k

LOW Dripx · 265d ago

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$41.2k

LOW Dripx · 332d ago

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