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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -19.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-19.0 pts
Called / graded
0/4
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$171.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$300.5k
Last 30 days −$0 · $6.63M volume · 4,428 trades · since Feb 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$283.4k
Open P&L · 25 positions
−$583.9k
Closed-position win rate
82%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
253d
35 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 0 | 0.8 | -19.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 9¢ | $14.3k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $97.7k 6.8× usual |
missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x11e50e…