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What this means. A wallet put $10.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 25% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.0k
BUY Yes @ 25¢ · 40,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet BlueOrchid took Yes (buy) for $10.0k at an average 25¢. At that price the market implied a 25% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.0k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 25¢ means
25%chance the market gave
+300American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 25¢
- Implied odds
- 25.0%
- Size
- $10.0k
- Placed
- Mar 13, 09:14 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 29, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- BlueOrchid
- Tx
- 0x07cbd8a7…
This wallet's graded record
0/4-19.0 pts
expected 0.8 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |