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shibagege

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -7.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$1.00M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$110.2k
Last 30 days +$2,982 · $7.10M volume · 8,042 trades · since Dec 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$115.2k
Open P&L · 119 positions
−$5,581
Closed-position win rate
74%
279 closed
Wallet age · markets
317d
394 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy100.1-7.0 pts
Other100.1-8.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 93¢ $32.9k7% 102d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 117d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $25.1k98% 117d agoexcluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢ $19.6k2% 118d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 118d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $39.9k
2.0× usual
0% 120d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $10.3k98% 129d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $22.5k99% 132d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ $91.2k
4.6× usual
2% 137d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $49.9k
2.5× usual
0% 149d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $35.4k0% 150d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $49.9k
2.5× usual
0% 151d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ $48.8k
2.4× usual
97% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 93¢ $18.6k93% 176d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ $11.8k99% 187d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢ $19.9k1% 188d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW SELL No @ 93¢ $19.8k7% 202d agocalled
Netanyahu out by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $18.9k1% 202d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 85¢ $17.0k85% 205d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $17.8k89% 206d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $17.7k98% 215d agoexcluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $16.9k0% 215d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $29.6k99% 215d agoexcluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $14.9k0% 216d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 87¢ $14.7k13% 219d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ $13.8k98% 219d agoexcluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $12.3k99% 220d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $72.9k
3.7× usual
0% 225d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $19.9k0% 225d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $19.9k0% 225d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k0% 226d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $24.0k8% 299d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $117.0k
5.9× usual
97% 316d agoexcluded

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