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What this means. A wallet put $117.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 97% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$117.0k
BUY No @ 97.5¢ · 120,000 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favorite4 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)5.9× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet shibagege took No (buy) for $117.0k at an average 97.5¢. At that price the market implied a 97% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $117.0k+2
Near-certain price-2
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 97¢ means
97%chance the market gave
−3860American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.5¢
- Implied odds
- 97.5%
- Size
- $117.0k
- Placed
- Dec 12, 10:05 EST
- Market close
- Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- shibagege
- Tx
- 0xee7375da…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-7.5 pts
expected 0.1 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |