Dktb

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +1.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?−$166Yes · avg 95¢ → 92.8¢ · $6,812

Price-adjusted edge

+1.8 pts

Called / graded

3/4

Expected from price

2.9

Flagged volume

$228.5k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$11.0k

Last 30 days −$26.2k · $1.61M volume · 1,455 trades · since Dec 22, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$46.6k

Open P&L · 8 positions

−$34.7k

Closed-position win rate

94%

62 closed

Wallet age · markets

306d

70 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	1.9	+4.6 pts
Crypto	2	1	1.0	-1.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$11.2k	95%	155d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$20.8k	97%	195d ago	excluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$13.9k	98%	203d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢	$71.7k 3.4× usual	96%	227d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$12.8k	12%	242d ago	missed
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$24.6k	98%	256d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢	$13.7k	90%	259d ago	called
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢	$21.5k	98%	264d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢	$38.3k	98%	275d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?called

BUY No @ 95¢$11.2k

LOW Dktb · 155d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.3¢$20.8k

LOW Dktb · 195d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?excluded

BUY No @ 97.6¢$13.9k

LOW Dktb · 203d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called

BUY No @ 95.9¢$71.7k

LOW Dktb · 227d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?missed

SELL No @ 88¢$12.8k

LOW Dktb · 242d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?excluded

BUY No @ 97.6¢$24.6k

LOW Dktb · 256d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?called

BUY No @ 90.4¢$13.7k

LOW Dktb · 259d ago

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?excluded

BUY No @ 98.4¢$21.5k

LOW Dktb · 264d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.2¢$38.3k

LOW Dktb · 275d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x07fb113c9fcb549ceaee69b137e0ee6e959c4696"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x07fb113c9fcb549ceaee69b137e0ee6e959c4696.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x07fb11…