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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did +15.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+15.3 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$212.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$79.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.87M volume · 1,006 trades · since Mar 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$79.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
70%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
215d
8 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | +15.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $28.7k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 92.3¢ | $51.7k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $21.9k | called |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $13.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x50eb8c…