← Wallets
+$6,669Yes · avg 80¢ → 91.5¢ · $54.1k+$10.7kNo · avg 66¢ → 83¢ · $50.4k+$15.8kYes · avg 50¢ → 76¢ · $46.0k+$9,101Yes · avg 4.5¢ → 16¢ · $12.8k+$7,137Yes · avg 3¢ → 9.6¢ · $10.4k−$1,040Yes · avg 3.5¢ → 3¢ · $6,929+$52Yes · avg 16¢ → 16¢ · $1,561−$159Yes · avg 1.4¢ → 1.1¢ · $522
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 15 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 10.8 wins, so it did +23.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +19.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+23.2 pts
Called / graded
15/18
Expected from price
10.8
Flagged volume
$937.8k
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$278k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 15 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 20¢) and the edge is +19.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
67% vs 29% · n=3
40–60¢
86% vs 50% · n=7
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=3
80–100¢
80% vs 86% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.58M
Last 30 days +$6,096 · $36.09M volume · 13,490 trades · since Nov 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.91M
Open P&L · 459 positions
−$4.15M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
718d
1505 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 17 | 14 | 10.1 | +23.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +26.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 29¢ | $46.9k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $29.0k | called |
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $50.0k | called |
 Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 39¢ | $33.3k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 54¢ | $17.5k | called |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 51¢ | $17.9k | called |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 55¢ | $45.2k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 49¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Kings vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 88¢ | $80.7k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Rockets @ 90¢ | $36.9k | called |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 42¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 73¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Nets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $121.4k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 68¢ | $99.4k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 57¢ | $33.8k | called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | MED BUY Raptors @ 55¢ | $81.3k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 80¢ | $32.0k | called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Warriors @ 53¢ | $26.2k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 47¢ | $34.5k | called |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 80¢ | $16.2k | called |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $19.2k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 45¢ | $19.1k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $40.0k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $10.8k | called |
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