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Weekly report card

Week 2026-31

Jul 27, 00:00 EDT – Aug 02, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week

Price-adjusted edge
+2.4 pts
Called
167/253
Expected from price
160.8
Std. error
±2.4

In week 2026-31, 253 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 167 times; entry prices implied 160.8. Whales beat the price by +2.4 pts. One week is a small sample.

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy15410798.3+5.6 pts
Other603936.3+4.5 pts
Sports351723.2-17.7 pts
Crypto443.0+25.9 pts

Every graded flag

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWalletWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $335.2k
11.0× usual
83% foodenjoyer113d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 74¢ $202.2k
6.6× usual
74% foodenjoyer87d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY No @ 72¢ $195.3k
5.1× usual
72% monkeyking42 NEW88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 89¢ $183.8k
6.7× usual
89% Kickstand7101d agocalled
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsMED BUY Spirit @ 79¢ $169.2k79% 0x0954…1e1b82d agomissed
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresMED BUY San Diego Padres @ 59¢ $162.1k
4.3× usual
59% 0x3dfb…abaf85d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $124.3k
6.6× usual
83% XAE12Archangel113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 78¢ $115.4k
2.2× usual
22% Qtyu108d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 88¢ $104.4k
4.4× usual
88% schizohedgehog101d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 95.4¢ $91.1k
4.8× usual
95% XAE12Archangel100d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 79¢ $83.8k
2.7× usual
79% foodenjoyer101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ $83.2k
2.2× usual
79% 0xbe18…3be487d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $77.8k86% 0xad96…d49893d agocalled
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresLOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ $69.5k60% 0x3dfb…abaf85d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $63.7k
2.7× usual
91% wokerjoesleeper PROVEN113d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 26¢ $62.7k
3.2× usual
26% surf88d agomissed
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersMED BUY Seattle Mariners @ 32¢ $60.0k32% pleaseplease12387d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ $59.7k49% Erasmus. PROVEN123d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 87¢ $59.2k
3.2× usual
87% MisTKy PROVEN101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 82¢ $55.6k18% alliswell106d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ $55.2k
2.2× usual
92% Tigerofthehood101d agocalled
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresLOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 61¢ $54.9k61% 0x3dfb…abaf85d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 13¢ $53.5k87% BunCaCham113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.6¢ $52.0k
3.2× usual
94% Cbs71095d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ $51.8k
2.4× usual
95% ScottyNooo PROVEN100d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $49.7k89% hild94d agocalled
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupLOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 67¢ $49.0k
2.2× usual
67% retordedgremlin12585d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $48.8k
2.9× usual
91% HHYP112d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $48.4k96% makinta103d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $47.5k95% 0xe665…7d42108d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $46.5k93% faceverification101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 91¢ $45.5k9% Hugewinner101d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $43.7k
2.3× usual
75% betwick90d agocalled
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles DodgersMED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 67¢ $43.7k67% Pwaddler87d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 87¢ $40.9k13% simpleman109d agomissed
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ $39.8k
2.6× usual
89% png102489d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 17¢ $39.8k17% TheReturnOfDarthMaul117d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢ $39.8k90% HH168113d agocalled
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupLOW BUY Gen.G @ 64¢ $38.4k64% jtwyslljy85d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 91.1¢ $38.3k91% HH168113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ $37.8k74% TwoEyes91d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ $36.6k
2.2× usual
97% HHYP99d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $35.5k92% XAE12Archangel112d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 24¢ $35.5k24% sleepy-panda LOSING87d agomissed
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?MED BUY No @ 92.9¢ $34.5k93% GoriIIa PROVEN94d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 93¢ $32.9k7% shibagege101d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $31.7k75% Melody62693d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.2¢ $31.5k90% XAE12Archangel101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 75¢ $31.4k25% gokol91d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $30.9k91% HH168112d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 29¢ $29.8k29% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN127d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 85¢ $29.6k85% BrazilianMemer113d agocalled
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?MED BUY No @ 91¢ $29.3k91% aff3 PROVEN94d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $29.2k86% HongKongMenace94d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $29.0k93% Fusionfx101d agocalled
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresLOW BUY San Francisco Giants @ 41¢ $27.9k41% 0x1b20…3ab085d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 92.8¢ $27.8k93% f2hf84hg52h595d agocalled
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $27.6k77% coali1095d agocalled
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresLOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ $27.0k60% 0x16bb…849285d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ $26.9k
2.1× usual
66% Makesmesicktomystomach130d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 27¢ $26.7k27% TheReturnOfDarthMaul88d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $26.2k82% 0xad96…d49894d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $26.2k76% hawkj121d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ $25.8k96% hild99d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 72¢ $25.8k72% purplegatto PROVEN88d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $25.7k92% HH168101d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $25.7k77% foodenjoyer107d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢ $25.0k12% TheReturnOfDarthMaul109d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 95¢ $24.9k5% 0xcca9…4c9f108d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 77¢ $24.0k23% ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN107d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?HIGH BUY Yes @ 26¢ $24.0k26% soupsinner NEW87d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ $23.5k88% ppxtu113d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.6¢ $23.2k91% XAE12Archangel113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 93.4¢ $23.0k7% truthteller95d agomissed
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupLOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 77¢ $22.8k77% ValorieCat83d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 60¢ $22.6k40% rooivalk101d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ $22.6k75% schizohedgehog125d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ $22.6k64% BobbyAxelrod33130d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ $22.3k83% imhome106d agocalled
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupMED BUY KT Rolster @ 24¢ $21.8k24% Zzzz87 PROVEN82d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢ $21.8k
2.1× usual
13% justme003109d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $21.6k71% ScottyNooo PROVEN88d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 86¢ $21.3k14% Istaroth104d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $21.3k96% GrokEnjoyer107d agocalled
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?LOW SELL No @ 79¢ $21.2k21% pada87d agocalled
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsLOW BUY paiN @ 42¢ $21.0k42% AV23IUa PROVEN84d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ $20.6k67% Treadmilled131d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢ $20.2k8% -nkt-128d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.8¢ $20.1k96% JustHereWaiting99d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢ $20.0k23% truthteller107d agomissed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsLOW BUY Spirit @ 79¢ $20.0k79% 0xf559…f46282d agomissed
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $20.0k96% floatingraft86d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $20.0k95% Do-Not-Redeem108d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 64¢ $19.8k64% foodenjoyer102d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 93.7¢ $19.8k94% JAHODA95d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $19.7k75% Useerna92d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ $19.7k80% yuhao12889d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ $19.5k81% floatingraft89d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢ $19.5k94% Obey216295d agocalled
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 88¢ $19.5k88% GoriIIa PROVEN99d agocalled

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Yesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.