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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.6 wins, so it did +5.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.9 pts
Called / graded
7/7
Expected from price
6.6
Flagged volume
$1.15M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$31k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? at 87¢) and the edge is +4.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$43.2k
Last 30 days +$30 · $12.67M volume · 7,409 trades · since Apr 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$332.1k
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$260.7k
Closed-position win rate
80%
178 closed
Wallet age · markets
187d
184 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.6 pts |
| Other | 6 | 6 | 5.6 | +6.3 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc15b83…