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What this means. A wallet put $49.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 0% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$49.9k
SELL No @ 99.8¢ · 50,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Other
What happened
Wallet makinta took No (sell) for $49.9k at an average 99.8¢. At that price the market implied a 0% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $49.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.8¢
- Implied odds
- 0.2%
- Size
- $49.9k
- Placed
- May 15, 06:17 EDT
- Market close
- May 14, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- makinta
- Tx
- 0x81919ee2…
This wallet's graded record
7/7+5.9 pts
expected 6.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $58.4k | excluded |