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What this means. A wallet put $29.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 86% chance. It won. This wallet has only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$29.2k
BUY No @ 86¢ · 34,122 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet HongKongMenace took No (buy) for $29.2k at an average 86¢. At that price the market implied a 86% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $29.2k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 86¢ means
86%chance the market gave
−590American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 86¢
- Implied odds
- 85.5%
- Size
- $29.2k
- Placed
- Jul 21, 22:24 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- HongKongMenace
- Tx
- 0xbf97c7f5…
This wallet's graded record
11/11+12.2 pts
expected 9.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +15 ptsNo price · entry 86¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $68.8k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $264.6k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |