← Wallets
−$3,713Yes · avg 68¢ → 56¢ · $16.3k−$1,355Yes · avg 36¢ → 24¢ · $2,645
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -8.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$241.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$23k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 36¢) and the edge is -8.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 35% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 58% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 60% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 81% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$72.4k
Last 30 days −$5,584 · $2.47M volume · 160 trades · since Dec 29, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$250.1k
Open P&L · 30 positions
−$320.3k
Closed-position win rate
79%
70 closed
Wallet age · markets
299d
99 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $50.0k 2.5× usual |
missed |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 81¢ | $17.7k | called |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 60¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 58¢ | $14.6k | called |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW SELL No @ 55¢ | $22.8k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $25.0k | missed |
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