← Wallets
−$2,649Yes · avg 86¢ → 80¢ · $33.7k+$5,553Yes · avg 77¢ → 93.5¢ · $31.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$509Yes · avg 65¢ → 64¢ · $26.9k+$4,987Yes · avg 63¢ → 78¢ · $26.3k+$2,899Yes · avg 59¢ → 68¢ · $22.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$42No · avg 83¢ → 84¢ · $22.1k−$1,551No · avg 80¢ → 74¢ · $18.6k+$11.6kYes · avg 21¢ → 74¢ · $16.2k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 27 of 30. The prices it paid implied about 21.2 wins, so it did +19.3 pts better than the market expected. That's a proven record: +19.3 pts vs the price over 30 bets. Without its single best bet: +18.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+19.3 pts
Called / graded
27/30
Expected from price
21.2
Flagged volume
$1.13M
Sample size30 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$146k30 graded bets in the order they resolved · 27 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 44¢) and the edge is +18.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 49% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=15
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.00M
Last 30 days +$64.2k · $67.45M volume · 354,631 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 450 closed
+$7.53M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$3.89M
Closed-position win rate
100%
450 closed
Wallet age · markets
163d
14474 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 20 | 17 | 14.1 | +14.3 pts |
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +18.0 pts |
| Economy | 8 | 8 | 5.4 | +32.1 pts |
History
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