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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -13.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.3 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$264.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$87.0k
Last 30 days −$76 · $4.38M volume · 5,589 trades · since Dec 26, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$87.3k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$330
Closed-position win rate
56%
388 closed
Wallet age · markets
666d
320 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +11.1 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -37.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ | $15.6k | missed |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $39.8k 2.6× usual |
called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ | $47.4k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ | $47.5k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 62¢ | $11.9k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
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