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What this means. A wallet put $124.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 83% chance. It won. This wallet has only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$124.3k
BUY No @ 83¢ · 149,502 shares in 4 fills
Size ≥ $100k4 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)6.6× this wallet's usual betEconomy
What happened
Wallet XAE12Archangel took No (buy) for $124.3k at an average 83¢. At that price the market implied a 83% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $124.3k+2
4 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 83¢ means
83%chance the market gave
−494American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 83¢
- Implied odds
- 83.2%
- Size
- $124.3k
- Placed
- Jul 02, 08:34 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- XAE12Archangel
- Tx
- 0xe1c01c14…
This wallet's graded record
13/19+5.4 pts
expected 12.0 from price
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Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $68.8k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $264.6k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |