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XAE12Archangel

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 19. The prices it paid implied about 12.0 wins, so it did +5.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 19 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?−$167No · avg 89¢ → 86¢ · $7,041Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?+$550No · avg 79¢ → 88¢ · $5,280Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?+$280No · avg 86¢ → 93.5¢ · $3,266Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?+$123No · avg 92.4¢ → 96.9¢ · $2,686Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?−$5No · avg 90.1¢ → 90¢ · $1,304Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?+$244No · avg 77¢ → 96¢ · $1,217Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?+$1No · avg 96.1¢ → 96.2¢ · $962Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?+$102Yes · avg 23¢ → 26¢ · $883
Price-adjusted edge
+5.4 pts
Called / graded
13/19
Expected from price
12.0
Flagged volume
$1.80M
Sample size19 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$67k
19 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$120k$0
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul at 77¢) and the edge is +4.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 78% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=11
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$163.2k
Last 30 days +$10.9k · $375.84M volume · 230,387 trades · since Mar 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$11.93M
Open P&L · 179 positions
−$5.80M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
946d
1768 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy141210.7+9.6 pts
Other511.3-6.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ $17.7k12% 38d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $42.4k
2.2× usual
91% 38d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $17.6k86% 40d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 84¢ $14.9k84% 40d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 60¢ $13.6k60% 74d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 35¢ $10.5k65% 75d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 94.7¢ $19.1k5% 97d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $16.7k96% 100d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 95.4¢ $91.1k
4.8× usual
95% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 93¢ $37.3k7% 101d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.2¢ $31.5k90% 102d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 80¢ $15.6k80% 107d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 78¢ $22.7k22% 108d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 84¢ $18.7k16% 109d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 88¢ $28.2k12% 110d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢ $10.1k90% 110d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $35.5k92% 113d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.6¢ $23.2k91% 113d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 86¢ $48.0k
2.5× usual
86% 114d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 83¢ $124.3k
6.6× usual
83% 114d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 77¢ $13.3k77% 121d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 75¢ $10.0k25% 121d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 96.9¢ $11.5k3% 166d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ $57.8k
3.1× usual
4% 179d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $47.9k
2.5× usual
100% 192d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $10.6k98% 193d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $40.1k
2.1× usual
99% 193d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ $13.2k2% 195d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $44.2k
2.3× usual
99% 195d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $43.5k
2.3× usual
99% 206d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $12.9k99% 206d agoexcluded
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ $19.4k97% 225d agocalled
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 84¢ $12.9k16% 231d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 90.4¢ $14.0k10% 232d agomissed
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?LOW SELL No @ 95¢ $15.6k5% 232d agomissed
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $22.7k95% 246d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $31.5k1% 253d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $12.7k1% 259d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $11.3k98% 261d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ $35.2k2% 261d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $35.2k98% 261d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ $60.7k
3.2× usual
98% 261d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $12.8k98% 261d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $19.6k2% 262d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $14.8k98% 264d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $49.2k
2.6× usual
98% 264d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $43.5k
2.3× usual
0% 269d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $39.8k
2.1× usual
100% 269d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ $24.5k100% 269d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $14.5k1% 271d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.7¢ $23.6k1% 273d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 96.5¢ $10.7k4% 278d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 95.2¢ $14.1k5% 280d agomissed
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $19.8k1% 309d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $19.7k99% 312d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $110.3k
5.8× usual
99% 319d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $13.1k1% 319d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $16.0k2% 340d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ $16.0k98% 346d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $18.2k1% 349d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $18.1k99% 349d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $22.2k99% 350d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ $12.0k71% 584d agomissed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL Yes @ 69¢ $20.3k31% 603d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢ $15.4k32% 607d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $12.8k69% 617d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 88¢$17.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 38d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 91¢$42.4k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 38d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 86¢$17.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 40d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 84¢$14.9k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 40d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 60¢$13.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 74d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 35¢$10.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 75d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 94.7¢$19.1k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 97d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 96.2¢$16.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 100d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 95.4¢$91.1k
MED XAE12Archangel · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 93¢$37.3k
MED XAE12Archangel · 101d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 90.2¢$31.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 102d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 80¢$15.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 107d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 78¢$22.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 108d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 84¢$18.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 109d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 88¢$28.2k
MED XAE12Archangel · 110d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 90.4¢$10.1k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 110d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 92¢$35.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 113d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 90.6¢$23.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 113d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 86¢$48.0k
MED XAE12Archangel · 114d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 83¢$124.3k
MED XAE12Archangel · 114d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 77¢$13.3k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 121d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 75¢$10.0k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 121d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 96.9¢$11.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 166d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?missed
SELL No @ 96.2¢$57.8k
MED XAE12Archangel · 179d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$47.9k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 192d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$10.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 193d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$40.1k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 193d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.3¢$13.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 195d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.4¢$44.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 195d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$43.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 206d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$12.9k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 206d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?called
BUY No @ 96.8¢$19.4k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 225d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 84¢$12.9k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 231d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 90.4¢$14.0k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 232d ago
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?missed
SELL No @ 95¢$15.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 232d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 95¢$22.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 246d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$31.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 253d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$12.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 259d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$11.3k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 261d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.1¢$35.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 261d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$35.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 261d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.2¢$60.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 261d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.1¢$12.8k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 261d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$19.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 262d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$14.8k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 264d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.5¢$49.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 264d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$43.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 269d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$39.8k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 269d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$24.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 269d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$14.5k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 271d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 98.7¢$23.6k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 273d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL No @ 96.5¢$10.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 278d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 95.2¢$14.1k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 280d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$19.8k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 309d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$19.7k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 312d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$110.3k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 319d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$13.1k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 319d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98¢$16.0k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 340d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 97.8¢$16.0k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 346d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$18.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 349d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$18.1k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 349d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$22.2k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 350d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?missed
BUY Yes @ 71¢$12.0k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 584d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?called
SELL Yes @ 69¢$20.3k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 603d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?called
SELL Yes @ 68¢$15.4k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 607d ago
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?missed
BUY Yes @ 69¢$12.8k
LOW XAE12Archangel · 617d ago

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