Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$431
Return on staked
-22.7%
Bets
13/19 won
Edge vs price
+5.4 pts ±6.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -1.1 pts (3/9). Newer half: +11.2 pts (10/10).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 19, 11:01 ESTSep 14, 12:45 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 86¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 84¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 96¢ | called | 100d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 90¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 80¢ | called | 107d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 90¢ | called | 110d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 92¢ | called | 113d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 91¢ | called | 113d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 83¢ | called | 114d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 77¢ | called | 121d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 3¢ | missed | 166d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 4¢ | missed | 179d ago |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | 97¢ | called | 225d ago |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | 16¢ | missed | 231d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.