pada

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did +81.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+81.2 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$157.3k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$56.0k

Last 30 days +$0 · $11.24M volume · 6,931 trades · since Sep 05, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$80.0k

Open P&L · 8 positions

−$83.0k

Closed-position win rate

37%

95 closed

Wallet age · markets

414d

92 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	0.4	+81.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	LOW SELL No @ 83¢	$13.3k	17%	86d ago	called
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	LOW SELL No @ 79¢	$21.2k	21%	87d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 39¢	$25.6k	61%	102d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 21¢	$21.3k	21%	120d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 23¢	$17.2k	23%	124d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 21¢	$30.4k	21%	127d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$28.2k	100%	353d ago	excluded

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?called

SELL No @ 83¢$13.3k

LOW pada · 86d ago

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?called

SELL No @ 79¢$21.2k

LOW pada · 87d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

SELL No @ 39¢$25.6k

MED pada · 102d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

BUY No @ 21¢$21.3k

MED pada · 120d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

BUY No @ 23¢$17.2k

LOW pada · 124d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

BUY No @ 21¢$30.4k

MED pada · 127d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$28.2k

LOW pada · 353d ago

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