justme003

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +37.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026+$3,655Yes · avg 70¢ → 82¢ · $24.1k Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?+$3,082No · avg 79¢ → 93.5¢ · $19.6k Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?−$8Yes · avg 93.5¢ → 93.5¢ · $18.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?+$770Yes · avg 94.1¢ → 98.4¢ · $17.7k Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$2,068No · avg 76¢ → 94.5¢ · $10.4k · 1 proven with, 0 against Iran leadership change by October 31?+$86No · avg 97¢ → 98¢ · $7,821 Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?+$139Yes · avg 87¢ → 88¢ · $7,320 Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?+$341No · avg 85¢ → 90¢ · $7,104

Price-adjusted edge

+37.7 pts

Called / graded

2/4

Expected from price

0.5

Flagged volume

$52.3k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$12.3k

Last 30 days +$3,241 · $3.56M volume · 6,675 trades · since Jul 31, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$20.0k

Open P&L · 66 positions

+$14.5k

Closed-position win rate

77%

372 closed

Wallet age · markets

450d

427 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	2	0	0.2	-9.1 pts
Other	2	2	0.3	+84.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 94.8¢	$10.1k	5%	98d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$21.8k 2.1× usual	13%	109d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	LOW SELL No @ 91¢	$10.2k	9%	201d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 78¢	$10.2k	22%	237d ago	called

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 94.8¢$10.1k

LOW justme003 · 98d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 87¢$21.8k

LOW justme003 · 109d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?called

SELL No @ 91¢$10.2k

LOW justme003 · 201d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?called

SELL No @ 78¢$10.2k

LOW justme003 · 237d ago

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