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JustHereWaiting

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$222.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$64.0k
Last 30 days −$5,098 · $3.50M volume · 5,297 trades · since Sep 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$54.0k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$10.1k
Closed-position win rate
75%
354 closed
Wallet age · markets
762d
347 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy111.0+4.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $14.4k100% 85d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.8¢ $20.1k96% 100d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% 110d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $31.4k
2.1× usual
0% 206d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $10.0k92% 210d agocalled
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $29.6k1% 214d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $19.3k99% 240d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $14.2k99% 241d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $10.3k100% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $11.6k1% 260d agoexcluded
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $14.1k1% 260d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.2¢ $17.4k99% 272d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $15.0k0% 293d agoexcluded

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