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0xad96…d498

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +10.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$6,933No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $175.8kGTA 6 launch postponed again?+$9,229No · avg 90.3¢ → 96.7¢ · $140.9kWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$609No · avg 96.5¢ → 95.5¢ · $57.2kWill the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?+$21Yes · avg 98.2¢ → 98.3¢ · $25.2kNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? +$351No · avg 93¢ → 97.7¢ · $7,299
Price-adjusted edge
+10.1 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$1.54M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$161.1k
Last 30 days −$1,739 · $14.26M volume · 4,145 trades · since Jul 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$161.2k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$14.5k
Closed-position win rate
86%
103 closed
Wallet age · markets
815d
105 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy443.6+10.1 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $100.1k99% 39d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $100.1k0% 39d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ $174.5k99% 42d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ $174.3k0% 42d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $10.4k99% 93d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ $77.8k86% 93d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ $26.2k82% 94d agocalled
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW SELL No @ 98.2¢ $13.3k2% 158d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW SELL No @ 97.1¢ $21.9k3% 160d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW SELL No @ 97.1¢ $38.9k3% 160d agoexcluded
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ $16.1k3% 160d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $76.2k100% 206d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ $99.1k96% 278d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ $145.8k96% 278d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $207.6k
2.3× usual
1% 317d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99¢ $256.0k
2.9× usual
99% 327d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$100.1k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 39d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$100.1k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 39d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.1¢$174.5k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 42d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$174.3k
MED 0xad96…d498 · 42d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$10.4k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 86¢$77.8k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 93d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 82¢$26.2k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 94d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
SELL No @ 98.2¢$13.3k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 158d ago
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
SELL No @ 97.1¢$21.9k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 160d ago
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
SELL No @ 97.1¢$38.9k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 160d ago
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded
SELL No @ 97.2¢$16.1k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 160d ago
Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$76.2k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 206d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$99.1k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 278d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$145.8k
MED 0xad96…d498 · 278d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$207.6k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 317d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99¢$256.0k
LOW 0xad96…d498 · 327d ago

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